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September 23, 2004

Kerry Folds In Missouri

I wrote this after Kerry picked Edwards as his VP choice back in July.


If, come late October, Edwards is still campaigning in the South, then George Bush is deep trouble. If, on the other hand, he's spending most of his time in battleground states outside the South in the month before Election Day, then it's the Kerry campaign that's getting ready to take one on the chin.

It was a common sort of common wisdom, but it's looking prescient nonetheless. Yesterday Kerry pulled his campaign commercials from four states; two of which are southern--Arkansas and Louisiana--and one that might as well be--Missouri.

Abandoning two of the southern states the Kerry campaign thought they had a shot at is bad enough, but historically, abandoning Missouri is a disaster. This is the state that has voted for the presidential winner in every election save one since 1900, after all. The admission by the Kerry that they can't win in the Show-Me state is an admission that the national campaign faces long odds indeed.

Hell, maybe the IEM isn't being manipulated.

Posted by Bigwig at September 23, 2004 12:18 PM | TrackBack
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Comments

Kerry is giving up TV advertising in four battlegruond states, one of which is Missouri. That spells HELL for his campaign.

Check out what I wrote on my blog yesterday about Bush and Allawi.

Tom

Posted by: tom proebsting at September 23, 2004 09:40 PM

I don't know about the rest of Arkansas, but I haven't seen a Kerry commercial here in a coon's age. They stopped a couple of months ago, about the same time as those by MoveOn.org. Coincidentally I'm sure.

Yard signs appeared everywhere over the weekend though, and we've had a couple of visits from Edwards and his missus. So I don't think they've totally written us off.

Posted by: rita at September 24, 2004 07:26 AM

I know its fun ... but we should all stop perpetuating the myth that stuff like winning Missouri is more important than winning other states because it has some mystical ability to pick winners.

See my post entitled "Election Factoids"

Posted by: Dave Tufte at September 24, 2004 01:40 PM

It must be nice to live in a place where TV programs are Kerry-commerical free!:) I noticed that the MSM avoid the phrase "four states written off," but I had no such inhibition on my own site. Meanwhile, I've been telling everyone I know to treat the upcoming presidential election as another cliffhanger where every single vote is precious.

Posted by: Bloodthirsty Warmonger at September 25, 2004 05:09 PM

Ruy Texeira says it's inevitable Kerry will win. Changing demographics mean that Kerry can win without the South, the Midwest, the West, the Northwest, the Northeast, and Alaska and Hawaii, so long as he carries California and Massachusetts, and pays to ship 1500 Dem trial lawyers to California. So it's no problem and Bush should quite right now.

Posted by: Blackavar at September 26, 2004 09:32 PM
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