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July 31, 2004

Stunning Post-Convention Election Bounce!

For George Bush--not John Kerry.

Yes, it's only the Iowa Electronic Markets, not a poll--but then the Electronic Market has historically had a smaller error rate than most polls when it comes to predicting a political winner, so don't dismiss it out of hand. The results may change over time, so for the sake of reference I'm storing a copy of the current graph here.

If the market is right, then the weekend polls now being conducted shouldn't show much of a Kerry bounce no matter how hard they are spun when published on Monday, and Mickey Kaus will gleefully return to his predictions of Democratic panic.

I'll be interested in what William Saletan will have to say about it, given his five-star review of the Kerry acceptance speech. Will he

1.) Recant his counter-intuitive review of the speech.

2.) Blame the news media's inadequate coverage of the convention, or

3.) Resort to that hoary practice so beloved of the Left and blast the American people for their bovine-like stupidity?

I like Saletan, so I'll go with 2. From now until election day--and afterwards, should Kerry win--it will be an article of faith among the committed that the Thursday speech was a rhetorical homerun rather than the carb-free gruel it appeared to be to those outside the Kerry Kool-Aid drinking circle, so 1 is probably too much to expect. Choosing 3, on the other hand, would imply that I think Saletan is blindly prejudiced and intellectually unserious, and that would be rude, given that I don't know the man. Nor have I seen anything in his previous writings that would cause me to suspect Saletan of creeping Moore-ism.

Of course, there's always 4.) The Iowa electronic markets are wrong, and there is a post convention bounce for Kerry, in which case 1, 2, and 3 should be applied to me, not Willie.

Moo, I say. Moo.

Posted by Bigwig at July 31, 2004 10:41 AM | TrackBack
Postscript:
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Comments

Never heard of Zogby? Tsk!

Posted by: meg at July 31, 2004 07:20 PM

Of course I have. And the typical Zogby error rate is almost twice what the Iowa Electronic Market's is.

Posted by: Bigwig at July 31, 2004 08:13 PM
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