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September 09, 2002

Speculative fiction? These things we

Speculative fiction?

These things we know:
1. Saddam is attempting to build a nuclear bomb.
2. Saddam cannot do this successfully without foreign technology and assistance.
3. In the past, Saddam has obtained foreign technology and assistance from, among others, France

It has since become evident that French nuclear technology, components and equipment were used in the secret nuclear weapons programs of a number of nations, including Israel, Pakistan, India, Iraq, South Africa and Algeria between 1960 and 1990

and Germany

From the information gathered in connection with these procurement efforts in the countries names it became apparent that technical data and construction documents classified as confidential pertaining to German centrifuges types had already made their way to Iraq. To what extent and in what ways this occurred was not known with any certainty.

4. Who is taking the lead in opposing a US attack on Iraq? France and Germany.

So far most of the reasons ascribed to the European resistance towards U.S. involvement in Iraqi have nodded a head towards one of three theories; simple greed, European resentment of US hegemony, or the European inclination towards seeking action through unwieldy international organizations like the U.N. , the World Court, and the E.U. itself.

What if instead the leadership of those countries, and perhaps the leadership of the E.U. as a whole, are more concerned with a U.S. invasion because of the likelihood that the invasion will expose a far more intimate degree of German and French involvement in Iraqi missile and nuclear development than heretofore suspected?

I can envision two scenarios that result due to the discovery of such evidence. The first is that we run across evidence that elements within the large Muslim populations of Western Europe, and of France and Germany in particular, have been smuggling technology and information, perhaps on such systems as French Ariane missiles and German gas centrifuges to Saddam for a number of years. There may even have been a transfer of radioactive materials. Such evidence would be hugely embarrassing on the European domestic political front, and depending on when it was found, could affect the upcoming German elections. There is already a rising tide of opposition to the Muslim immigrants in Europe; evidence that they are actively aiding Saddam would make opposing that tide extremely difficult. Since the politicians on the right have to most to gain from that opposition, and elected rightist politicians give the overall E.U. leadership fits, it would be in that leadership's interest to prevent US involvement in Iraq.

The second, darker scenario, is that U.S. forces uncover evidence that such a technology and materials transfer has been ongoing for a number of years, and that the transfer was not done despite the best efforts of the French and German administrations, but with their full aid and approval, perhaps using E.U. companies as a front for illegal technology transfers.

Such a scenario presupposes only that the European resentment of U.S. hegemony is not the surface thing that it appears, but is instead far deeper and more malevolent. The politics of the European welfare state effectively prevent the massive increase in defense spending that would be necessary for the E.U. to oppose America militarily. The only state with even a ghost of a chance at doing so alone, Germany, could not do so without setting off all sorts of historical alarms. So the question is, how could the E.U., or radical elements within the E.U., oppose the U.S. and weaken it enough so that Europe could regain its historical role as Western civilization's center of gravity?

If you cannot defeat an enemy's forces as a whole, you must find a way to make him divide his forces, and then defeat them in part, or at the very least, make sure that they cannot be used elsewhere. Right now the U.S. has a massive military force, but one that is already splintered due to commitments all over the globe. If the E.U. could keep us out of Iraq while a couple of other brushfires erupt, (Colombia, Venezuela, Kashmir or Indonesia spring to mind), then we may never invade.

So what happens? Iraq's possession of the nuclear card quickly makes it the dominant power in the Arab world, and Saddam uses that influence to announce that in future, the Arab league will stand with the E.U. on most matters of state. If the U.S. doesn't like it, tough. The U.S. becomes tied down in the Middle East on one hand by the E.U.'s insistence on "international approval" of any military action, and on the other by Iraq's possession of the oil weapon as well as the nuclear one. Voila, once again we have a two-superpower world.

Nothing happens for 50 years, until the E.U.'s demographics make it a de-facto Islamic state, at which point the US. realizes that it is confronted by a richer, much more powerful and significantly better armed Taliban.

Man, being paranoid sure is interesting.

Posted by Bigwig at September 9, 2002 12:59 PM | TrackBack
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