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November 18, 2002

Nobody expects the American Combat

Nobody expects the American Combat Mission!

Instapundit links to an article at Technology Review about the new military tech likely to be used in an war on Iraq and the advantages they give U.S. soldiers

The invasion of Baghdad (if necessary) will take place on a dark night, moonless or cloud-covered. The army motto (once used exclusively by the U.S. Special Operations Forces) is now “We own the night.” Our forces not only see in the dark, they are trained to fight in the dark.

That makes sense. That makes 2 known constraints that need to be satisfied before we let loose the Dogs.

1.) The Military Sealift Command Vessels must deliver their cargo, a condition that should be fulfilled by the end of the month, as they departed in late October.

2.) Dark of the moon, Dec 5th. The Navy makes it Dec 4th. The next one is 28 days after that.

I'd like to pick Dec 5th as the attack date, but it feels rushed. The next dark of the moon is Jan 2, which doesn't feel as rushed. It also give the inspectors more time to stumble across a "material breach" of the Security Council resolution on Iraq, which preserves the figleaf of U.N. backing for the war. January is also historically the coldest and least windy month in the area, conditions which will inhibit the effectiveness of any Iraqi chemical or biological attack.

Ok, Four known constraints.

1. Military Sealift Command
2. Dark of the Moon
3. UN Figleaf
4. Bad weather for presumed Iraqi WMDs


Plus, there's the Bush family penchant for nice round numbers. Remember the hundred days of war from the last Iraqi war?

Ok, Five constraints

Cardinal Ximinez: Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise.... I'll come in again.

Let's just say my prediction is the night of 01/01/2003 and stop there.

If you can think of any other known or supposed constraints, drop us a line or leave a comment. We'll see if we can't refine the prediction.

Posted by Bigwig at November 18, 2002 03:23 PM | TrackBack
Postscript:
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