Front page
Archive
Silflay Hraka?


Bigwig is a systems administrator at a public university
Hrairoo is the proprietor of a quality used bookstore
Kehaar is the head web developer for a regional newspaper
Woundwort is a professor of counseling at a private university

The Hraka RSS feed

Email
bigwig AT nc.rr.com

Friends of Hraka
InstaPundit
Daily Pundit
cut on the bias
Meryl Yourish
This Blog Is Full Of Crap
Winds of Change
A Small Victory
Silent Running
Dr. Weevil
Little Green Footballs
ColdFury
Oceanguy
Fragments from Floyd
VodkaPundit
Allah
The Feces Flinging Monkey
Dean's World
Little Tiny Lies
The Redsugar Muse
Sperari
Natalie Solent
From the Mrs.
ErosBlog
The Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler
On the Third Hand
Public Nuisance
Not a Fish
Rantburg
AMCGLTD
WeckUpToThees!
Electric Venom
Skippy, The Bush Kangaroo
Common Sense and Wonder
Neither Here Nor There
Wizbang!
Bogieblog
ObscuroRant
RocketJones
The Greatest Jeneration
Ravenwolf
Ipse Dixit
TarHeelPundit
Blog On the Run
blogatron
Redwood Dragon
Notables
Greeblie Blog
Have A Cuppa Tea
A Dog's Life
IMAO
Zonitics.com
Iberian Notes
Midwest Conservative Journal
A Voyage to Arcturus
HokiePundit
Trojan Horseshoes
In Context
dcthornton.blog
The People's Republic of Seabrook
Country Store
Blog Critics
Chicago Boyz
Hippy Hill News
Kyle Still Free Press
The Devil's Excrement
The Fat Guy
War Liberal
Assume the Position
Balloon Juice
Iron Pen In A Velvet Glove
IsraPundit
Freedom Lives
Where Worlds Collide
Knot by Numbers
How Appealing
South Knox Bubba
Heretical Ideas
The Kitchen Cabinet
Dustbury.com
tonecluster
Bo Cowgill
mtpolitics.net
Raving Atheist
The Short Strange Trip
Shark Blog
Hoplites
Jimspot
Ron Bailey's Weblog
Cornfield Commentary
Testify!
Northwest Notes
pseudorandom
The Blog from the Core
Ain'tNoBadDude
CroMagnon
The Talking Dog
WTF Is It Now??
Blue Streak
Smarter Harper's Index
nikita demosthenes
Bloviating Inanities
Sneakeasy's Joint
Ravenwood's Universe
The Eleven Day Empire
World Wide Rant
All American
Pdawwg
The Rant
The Johnny Bacardi Show
The Head Heeb
Viking Pundit
Mercurial
Oscar Jr. Was Here
Just Some Poor Schmuck
Katy & Bruce Loebrich
But How's The Coffee?
Roscoe Ellis
Foolsblog
Sasha Castel
Dodgeblogium
Susskins Central Dispatch
DoggerelPundit
Josh Heit
Attaboy
Aaron's Rantblog
MojoMark
As I was saying...
Blog O' Dob
Dr. Frank's Blogs Of War
Betsy's Page
A Knob for Brightness
Fresh Bilge
The Politburo Diktat
Drumwaster's rants
Curt's Page
The Razor
An Unsealed Room
The Legal Bean
Helloooo chapter two!
As I Was Saying...
SkeptiLog AGOG!
Tong family blog
Vox Beth
Velociblog
I was thinking
Judicious Asininity
This Woman's Work
Fragrant Lotus
DaGoddess
Single Southern Guy
Caerdroia
GrahamLester.Com
Jay Solo's Verbosity
TacJammer
Snooze Button Dreams
Horologium
You Big Mouth, You!
From the Inside looking Out
Night of the Lepus
No Watermelons Allowed
From The Inside Looking Out
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
Suburban Blight
Aimless
The SmarterCop
Dog of Flanders
From Behind the Wall of Sleep
Beaker's Corner
Bad State of Gruntledness
Who Tends The Fires
Granny Rant
Elegance Against Ignorance
Moxie.nu
Eccentricity
Say What?
Blown Fuse
Wait 'til Next Year
The Pryhills
The Whomping Willow
The National Debate
The Skeptician
Zach Everson
MonkeyWatch
Geekward Ho
Argghhh!!!
Life in New Orleans
Rotten Miracles
Fringe
The Biomes Blog
illinigirl
See What You Share
Truthprobe
Blog d’Elisson
Your Philosophy Sucks
Watauga Rambler
Socialized Medicine
Consternations
Verging on Pertinence
Read My Lips
ambivablog
Soccerdad
The Flannel Avenger
Butch Howard's WebLog
Castle Argghhh!
Andrew Hofer
kschlenker.com
Moron Abroad
White Pebble
Darn Floor
Wizblog
tweedler
Pajama Pundits
BabyTrollBlog
Cadmusings
Goddess Training 101
A & W

June 24, 2003

Around The Horn

The Baltic Sky, the ship seized by Greece earlier today, was laden with 680 tons of explosives*, a cargo whose final destination was Khartoum, the capital of Sudan.

Sudan is listed by the U.S. State Deptartment as a supporter of terrorism, and provides support and refuge to a number of terrorist groups.

Sudan borders Kenya, among other countries.

A day or so before the Baltic Sky was seized, the United States embassy in Kenya was closed due to knowledge of a credible terrorist threat.

Was the embassy closure related to the seizure, or was it just another way to pressure the Kenyans into acting more like a partner in the WoT?

The answer depends on the strength of Al-Qaeda in Africa. If the group is strong enough to run simultaneous operations in the Horn, the odds are the two events are not specifically related to one another, and the seizure, while significant, affects only one cell out of an unknown number.

On the other hand, if Al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened, then its ability to perform multiple operations is also weakened, meaning that the two events may well be related, and that the seizure is another massive blow to an already reeling Al-Qaeda.

The geographic contraction of Al-Qeada's attacks since 9/11, occuring ever closer to the centers of its strength in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, would seem to support the notion that Al-Qaeda is weakening, with a possible corollary effect in that the remaining members of the group may attempt attacks that carry greater operational risk to themselves in an effort to re-seize the initiative.

If the Baltic Sky seizure was anything other than a happy accident, which seems unlikely at best, then the intelligence that led to it could have also triggered the embassy closure. The utilization of that intelligence would be ongoing, as any source good enough to provide target and weapons information probably also had knowledge of the operatives involved in planning the attack.

Of course there's no way to know for sure, but should Kenya or the U.S. announce a number of detentions in the Horn of Africa over the next week or so, it would be another argument in favor of a weakend, penetrated African branch of Al-Qaeda.

* 680 tons is a large amount, to be sure, but nowhere near even the level of an atomic bomb, despite what the excitable Minister of Shipping stated.

Update: Just noticed that I'd somehow lost the "link via" line of the original post, so here it is again.

Guardian link via The Smallest Minority.

Posted by Bigwig at June 24, 2003 12:37 AM | TrackBack
Postscript:
First time visitor to House Hraka? Wondering if everything we produce could possibly be as brilliant/stupid/evil/pedantic/insipid/inspired as the post you just read? Check out the Hraka Essentials, the (mostly) reader-selected guide to Hraka's best posts, and decide for yourself.
Comments

Perhaps it's smaller than a tatical nuke, but it would WRECK a port, especially if it was detonated next to, say, an LPG tanker.

Very, very ugly.

Posted by: Kevin Baker at June 24, 2003 10:36 AM

Geez Bigwig, don't you know that the terrorist threat is exaggerated in a massive conspiracy to allow the Bush family profit and the Halliburton Co. to take control of the world's ooooooiiiiilllll?

And Kevin, that's just far fetched. I mean, how would terrorists ever know to park a ship in a dock near an LPG tanker? I mean, except for the fact that every time one rolls in, say to Baltimore, it's on the local news?

Like I said, it's all part of a conspiracy to help get the Bushes re-elected. They were Nazis you know... ooooooiiiiilllll, I tell you; ooooooiiiiilllll!

Posted by: Omnibus Bill at June 24, 2003 11:18 AM

I'm sure they only want it to build tunnels and blast mountains for freeway overpasses.

Posted by: Mrs. du Toit at June 24, 2003 01:31 PM
Post a comment Note: Comments with more than two dashes per line will be blocked as spam.









Remember personal info?